| West Virginia Heads Down a Political Road Less Taken
November 16, 2004
By JAMES DAO
CHARLESTON, W. Va., Nov. 12 - On the eve of the
presidential election, Democrats here could practically
taste victory for Senator John Kerry.
Senator Robert C. Byrd, the party's revered elder
statesman, headlined boisterous rallies that seemed to
augur a huge Democratic turnout. Coal miners and steel
workers pounded on doors urging loyalists to vote. All that
remained was for Democrats, who outnumber Republicans in
this state by two to one, to do what they have done so many
times before: vote the party line.
But they did not. President Bush trounced Mr. Kerry by 13
percentage points, doubling his margin of victory in West
Virginia from 2000 and becoming the first Republican since
William McKinley to win this once reliably Democratic state
twice.
The Democrats' bad news did not end there. Kenneth Hechler,
a 90-year-old former congressman, was soundly defeated for
secretary of state by a little-known Republican, Betty
Ireland, despite outspending her by more than two to one.
Justice Warren McGraw of State Supreme Court, a fiery
populist, was thrashed in his bid for re-election by a
novice Republican candidate backed by business groups and
coal operators. And three Democratic state senators were
unseated by Republican insurgents.
"I'd love to say I saw it all coming," said Gov. Bob Wise,
a Democrat who is stepping down at the end of the year.
"But I thought we were going to win."
Drawn by a powerful conservatism on issues like abortion,
gun control and same-sex marriage, and fed up with the
state's shrinking population and perpetually high poverty
rates, voters are leaving the Democratic Party in
substantial numbers, party leaders say.
The defections have so alarmed the state chairman, G.
Nicholas Casey Jr., that he sent a memorandum to county
leaders this week demanding that they pledge loyalty to the
party or resign their positions.
"We need to step back and look hard at our party," Mr.
Casey wrote. "The Republican Party has become a force and
it is a unified force."
The Republicans have indeed made significant strides,
gaining 15 seats in the Legislature since 2002 and
out-registering Democrats this year by nearly two to one.
Their work paid off on Election Day, as the party's diverse
strands came together with a fervor few thought possible,
uniting evangelical Protestants with Roman Catholics, union
members with Chamber of Commerce businessmen.
Many Democrats now agree with political analysts who say
the state will go the way of Kentucky and Tennessee, with
Democrats continuing to control local governments but
struggling to hold onto the Legislature and facing uphill
battles in presidential races.
"This election will make it respectable to be a
Republican," said Andy Gallagher, Justice McGraw's campaign
manager.
To be sure, the Republicans did not score a clean sweep.
The Democratic candidate for governor, Secretary of State
Joe Manchin, won with more than 60 percent of the vote.
But in many ways, Mr. Manchin was the exception that proved
the rule: He is one of the most conservative Democrats to
win the job in decades, staunchly opposing abortion, gun
control and gay marriage, and advocating a low-tax,
pro-business economic platform.
"This state is not going to revert back to people voting
blindly for Democrats," Mr. Manchin said in an interview.
"We're going to have to earn their votes. And if we don't,
we'll continue to get picked off one by one."
Democratic leaders argued that Mr. Hechler lost because he
was too old and that Justice McGraw was vastly outspent by
a phalanx of business groups led by the Chamber of Commerce
and Don L. Blankenship, chief executive of Massey Energy,
who poured $3.5 million of his money into an advertising
campaign harshly attacking Justice McGraw.
But they were deeply dismayed by Mr. Kerry's showing. Four
years ago, Vice President Al Gore all but ignored the
state, and his loss could be written off to neglect. This
year, Democrats were out in force for months registering
voters, recruiting volunteers and defending Mr. Kerry's
positions on gun control, coal mining and steel tariffs.
Yet the margin of defeat grew.
"The Democrats did everything right by the playbook and
still got blasted," said Robert Rupp, a professor of
political science and history at West Virginia Wesleyan
College.
The difference this year, Democrats and analysts said, was
the fervent activity of conservative churches. For months,
Bush campaign workers recruited support from pastors,
registered church members and distributed literature after
Sunday services. It was the kind of work unions have long
done for Democrats, only this time the church vote outpaced
the labor vote, Democrats said.
"Some say the religious right is more powerful than labor
ever was, and I think there's a lot of truth to that," said
State Delegate Mike Caputo, a Democrat who works for the
United Mine Workers of America.
Mr. Casey and other leaders of the state party said the
Democrats had already begun an outreach program to
churches, arguing that most Democrats are as much against
abortion, gay marriage and gun control as are Republicans.
But the erosion of Democratic support is as much due to
demographic shifts as to the religious right, analysts
said. The eastern panhandle abutting Maryland, long a
Republican stronghold, is the fastest-growing part of the
state, becoming an affluent bedroom community to
Washington. Mr. Bush won handily there.
At the same time, the coal fields of the south, a
Democratic redoubt for decades, have steadily lost
population as mining jobs have dried up and young people
have moved away.
Raleigh County, the home of Mr. Byrd and Representative
Nick J. Rahall II, also a Democrat, exemplifies the
shifting tides. Though Democrats still outnumber
Republicans there, Mr. Bush took 60 percent of the vote and
a Republican won a magistrate's seat for the first time in
nearly eight decades.
Cultural issues were important there, but so was the
economy. Joe Long, the chairman of the Raleigh County
Republican Committee, said that Republicans hammered at
state Democrats all year for presiding over decades of job
losses, low income and high poverty rates.
"We've been preaching that single-party rule has hurt West
Virginia," Mr. Long said. "People are listening, finally."
The Republicans are already suffering growing pains,
evidenced in an internal struggle that led to the firing of
the party's executive director after the election. But they
are confidently looking to challenge Mr. Byrd in 2006 and
take control of the Legislature in 2008, goals that no
longer seem impossible.
Kris Warner, chairman of the state Republican Party, said
Mr. Byrd was hurt by his harsh attacks against Mr. Bush,
both in a book and on the stump. The senator's age may also
be an issue; Mr. Byrd will be 88 when he is up for
re-election.
"He has lost his edge," Mr. Warner said of Mr. Byrd, who
has been in the Senate since 1959.
Aides to Mr. Byrd said he planned to run again in 2006. In
an e-mail message, Mr. Byrd pulled no punches on Mr. Bush,
calling his administration dangerous. But he also warned
that many Democrats had begun to question where the party
stood on core issues.
"I have always known where the values of West Virginia lie
- patriotism, faith, family, opportunity, a clear sense of
right and wrong, and justice," Mr. Byrd said. "The
Democratic Party needs to get back to reflecting those core
principles."
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